Longer form (canonical): In 2050, which of the listed sources will believe President Trump and/or his allies staged an assassination attempt against him?

At some point in the year 2050, I will identify a member of each listed class and ask them whether they think any assassination attempt targeting Donald Trump during his presidency was an operation planned by Trump and/or his close allies. I will target people who I think have a low chance of being aware of this market. I will try to get them to land on a percentage chance. I will then resolve the answers to those percentages.

Fine print:

• If the subject is overall noncooperative, I will likely just choose another member of the class.

• If the subject gives a binary answer but is unwilling to choose a percentage, I will resolve to 0 or 100.

• I don't plan to provide a way for you to verify the results. Maybe this will change by 2050.

• If I forget about or otherwise fail to resolve this market in 2050, I'll try to do it whenever I remember, if it hasn't already been resolved by another power.

  • If it's 2051 or after, I am an inactive user, and someone with the power to resolve the market and who has never traded on the market wants to gather the answers themselves, they have my blessing.

• I will not trade in this market.