Will the AfD get 30+ seats in the Thuringia state elections?
Oct 4

Resolves according to the results of the 2024 Thuringian state election on September 1.

30 of 88 seats means the AfD has more than a third of the votes in the parliament. Anything which requires a two-thirds majority can then be vetoed by the AfD and cooperation is required.

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Looking at the latest Infratest dimap poll (March 14-18). Let's assume the Greens fall below the 5% threshold. That means 16+29+20+9+15 percent of the votes count. AfD with 29% would then get 32.5% of the seats. I'm back to 50% now.

Strategic democratic voters in Thuringia: You should probably vote Green to keep them in the parliament.

Made another market for the Greens in particular: