Will the AfD get 30+ seats in the Thuringia state elections?
7
35
Ṁ262Ṁ295
Oct 4
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves according to the results of the 2024 Thuringian state election on September 1.
30 of 88 seats means the AfD has more than a third of the votes in the parliament. Anything which requires a two-thirds majority can then be vetoed by the AfD and cooperation is required.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Looking at the latest Infratest dimap poll (March 14-18). Let's assume the Greens fall below the 5% threshold. That means 16+29+20+9+15 percent of the votes count. AfD with 29% would then get 32.5% of the seats. I'm back to 50% now.
Strategic democratic voters in Thuringia: You should probably vote Green to keep them in the parliament.
Related questions
Will the parties in germany reach the following numbers in the polls before July 2024?
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
39% chance
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
74% chance
Who will get more votes in the Saxony state elections?
Which party will be in the government following the 2024 Thuringian state election?
Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
69% chance
Will the SPD enter the Saxony state parliament in the upcoming election?
73% chance
Which party will provide the new Prime Minister of Thuringia after the 2024 state election?
Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?
69% chance
Will the Green Party get any seats in the Thuringia state elections?
52% chance