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65% chance. In webdiplomacy game 713830, the Manifold account behind each country is known. Resolves YES, if any of the players says in the comments here that they received (or will receive) Mana for some in-game action. It doesn't need to be true because we cannot check for sure anyways. Direct managrams are public but there are plenty of loopholes around that, so we don't try. Resolves NO, once the game ends. A comment about sending a bribe does not count unless the receiver acknowledges it. It must be the receiver themselves who admits it though we might derive details from elsewhere (e.g. what the in-game action was). A comment about being promised a bribe only counts if the corresponding in-game action was performed. The offer of a bribe is irrelevant. However, performing an action because of a promised bribe counts even if the bribe will ultimately not be payed. The receiver did their part, so it counts.