In webdiplomacy game 713830, which countries will survive at the end?
Resolves to all countries which survive according the webdiplomacy.net. Usually multiple countries survive, so be careful: The payout might be smaller than the hints suggest.
Closing date might be adjusted.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ133 | |
| 2 | Ṁ46 | |
| 3 | Ṁ31 | |
| 4 | Ṁ30 | |
| 5 | Ṁ15 |
People are also trading
@marketwise The description says "according the webdiplomacy.net." Looking at the screenshot, Russia and Turkey survived. Anybody who wants to argue differently?
This other market is quite confident that only 3 will survive:
/AnttiRasinen/dip713830-if-the-diplomacy-game-end
@marktweise and in that case they pay out as advertised, or divided by the number of survivors? Sorry for the basic questions...
@Thomas42 It will be divided, so I assume the payout hints could be misleading.
When I resolve it I can adapt how it divides. By default it does so according to the percentages. Is that fair? Alternatively, I could adapt it to be split evenly and calculating expected returns would be easier.
@marktweise yea I think just resolving evenly is fair. I suppose it would be more sound to just have one survival question per country, but that is pretty cumbersome.
@Thomas42 It is weird though. By-percentage incentivizes a better reflection of the actual survival chances. Just multiply them by the number of survivors.
@marktweise thinking about it a bit more, it may lead to some weird situations. For example if one country will clearly survive, and two others are still battling it out, you can't bid the one that will clearly survive up to 100%, you also have to decide if 2 or 3 will survive in total and bid based on that, since buying at >33% would be a net loss if there are 3 survivors.