Which car brands will start selling self-driving cars in 2024?
Basic
6
Ṁ652
Dec 31
74%
BMW
11%
Volvo
10%
BYD
9%
General Motors (GM)
9%
Hyundai
9%
Polestar
9%
Kia
5%
Tesla

A car brand resolves YES if they start selling SAE level 3/4/5 cars in at least one major country.

The rest resolves NO in 2025.

Major country (top 10 by GDP): US, China, Germany, Japan, India, UK, France, Italy, Brazil, Canada.

This is about car brands, so you don't have to care about who owns whom to what degree.

This is about selling cars to end users, so taxis like Waymo do not qualify. Also, announcements are not sufficient. Upgrading cars is fine though (e.g. Tesla over-the-air update).

It is about driving, so a level 4 parking feature like Automated Valet Parking does not qualify.

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How does this resolve if you can order a level 3 car in 2024 but it won't be manufactured and delivered until 2025?

@WrongoPhD Tough question. The question is if your order is actually a sale or an advance booking (like Kickstarter).

I think a little leniency is acceptable. If the car gets delivered in January it would count. If it won't get delivered after Q1 it would not.

Some opinions on tightening it further?

@marktwse That seems reasonable and honors the spirit of the question. Thanks. If the question was meant only to be about offering it for sale but never actually delivering it, Tesla already would be a yes.

Professor WrongoboughtṀ100Tesla NO

Copied from another question: /MaxPayne/which-car-manufacturer-will-sell-a

BMW will mit dem 7er eine entsprechende Lösung anbieten, bei Kia soll der EV9 später Level 3 beherrschen, bei Volvo der EX90 und bei Polestar sind spätere Umsetzungen für den Polestar 3 und 4 geplant. (source)

Deepl translation:

BMW wants to offer a corresponding solution with the 7 Series, Kia's EV9 will later master Level 3, Volvo's EX90 and Polestar is planning later implementations for the Polestar 3 and 4.

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