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MANIFOLD
Government coalition following the 2024 Saxony state election?
18
Ṁ330Ṁ4.7k
resolved Dec 22
100%98.3%
CDU+SPD
0.3%
AfD+CDU
0.2%
AfD+BSW
0.4%
CDU+SPD+Greens (continuation)
0.0%
CDU+BSW+SPD
0.1%
CDU+BSW+Greens
0.3%
CDU+BSW
0.4%Other

Resolves to the coalition of the next government following the 2024 Saxony state election on September 1.

Close date might be adapted.

The order and vote numbers are not relevant for this question. For example, AfD+CDU is the same as CDU+AfD.

Related: /marktwse/which-party-will-be-in-the-governme-679c889841e7

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will resolve based on the coalition that forms the government, not just parties that sign a coalition agreement. The government must be successfully elected by parliament.

Market context
Elections: World
Germany
German Politics
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bought Ṁ5 NO

CDU+SPD have signed a coalition contract but it is uncertainty if they get elected by the parliament because they are a minority.

bought Ṁ5 YES

CDU+SPD maybe: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/regional/sachsen/sachsen-cdu-spd-100.html

I mirrored the question to Metaculus.

sold Ṁ4 YES

These are the possibilities:

How big is the risk that the SPD will not even be available for a coalition?

The current government is CDU + SPD + Greens, so it would not be a continuation if I interpret it correctly.

@HannesLynchburg Oops. You are right. 😊 Fixed it. Thanks for the hint.

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