Will the SPD enter the Saxony state parliament in the upcoming election?
7
23
Ṁ318Ṁ200
Sep 1
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In the Saxony state election, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is teetering on the edge, polling close to the 5% threshold. If they fail to cross this mark, they won’t secure any seats in the parliament.
Resolves YES if the SPD manages to garner more than 5% of the vote, securing representation.
Resolves NO If the SPD falls short of the 5% threshold, leaving them out of the parliament.
I'll use the projects available the day after the election if they report at least 6%. If it's closer than that, I'll extend the market until the formal results are available.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW be part of the next German federal parliament?
45% chance
Will SP get a seat in the European parliament?
46% chance
Will the SGP gain a seat in the European Parliament?
43% chance
Which party will be in the government following the 2024 Saxony state election?
Will the German SPD win smaller share of votes in the EU-election, 9th of June 2024, compared to the one in 2019?
76% chance
Government coalition following the 2024 Saxony state election?
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
74% chance
Which German states will have Sarah Wagenknecht's BSW in their parliaments after their next elections?
Which party will be in the government following the 2024 Thuringian state election?
Will the AfD get 30+ seats in the Thuringia state elections?
29% chance