
Will Bonfire be more popular than Twitter for "important conversation", by July 1st 2026 (mid-year)
16
1kṀ18392026
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I define "important conversation" as informative or consequential conversation between influential people, politicians, philosophers and academics. (The kind that's rare on twitter due to the char limit, might become a lot more common in a place without one, or, who knows, substantial conversations between influential people might end up remaining rare in public because incentives.)
Although I'm not asking about general popular adoption (as I don't care about that) note that this is likely to be a precursor to broad adoption. People will go where the news is happening.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Which Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Which of these reddit alternatives will see the greatest growth in the 2 years following July 1st 2023?
Will the Bonfire social network project surmount its performance problems before it's too late?
72% chance
Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?
83% chance
Will Twitter collapse by the end of 2030?
35% chance
Will there exist a popular piece of media featuring the Twitter Pill Dilemma by 2026?
28% chance
Which Twitter successor will win out in 2025?
When will Twitter actually "collapse"?
What will the biggest twitter-like app be in 2026?
Will a new social media platform launched after 1/1/23 surpass 500 million active users by 2026?
28% chance