Solar Radiation Management is the deployment of technology to reflect more light away from the earth for the purpose of controlling global temperature.
I'll count it as "serious" if enough materials are being deployed that they're expected to have a combined potency of negating 30% of the temperature increase from 1990 levels. (This is likely to be some years after the decision to deploy is made, as artificially cooling too rapidly would likely create more problems than it solves.)
Closing date will be extended until we know.
Consensus among climate engineers that it cannot or should not be done would be a closing condition.
1,000Yeah, this wasn't supposed to be a multiple choice market, should have been a free response, I'd recommend not betting, I'm probably going to have to make another market.
I don't understand how this market is supposed to work. The options only cover the years up to 2030, yet its current closing date is much later than that, so presumably it's not going to resolve to the last option if it doesn't happen by 2030.