Will a large-scale solar geoengineering project be implemented by 2035? | Manifold

Will a large-scale solar geoengineering project be implemented by 2035?

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2036

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Resolves YES if at least one geoengineering project has been undertaken, and it is widely agreed to have impacted global temperatures. Resolves NO if no such consensus exists.

Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if there is consensus of a measurable impact on global temperature, even if the impact is small. No specific magnitude threshold is required beyond being measurable.

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Is there threshold for magnitude of impact?

@EvanDaniel I would resolve yes if consensus indicates a measurable impact on global temperature, even if it's small.

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