Resolves N/A if someone from the Kirchner family is a candidate for either president or vice-president of any major party (Any party that makes it into the general elections, supposing changes are made to election laws). Otherwise, resolves true if Milei is reelected

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 49% chance (5 traders, as of Oct 29, 2026).

Conditional on no Kirchners being on any major party presidential ticket, will Milei be reelected in 2027?

If this person is the Democratic primary nominee for Wisconsin governor in 2026, will they win the election?

If this person is the Republican nominee for the 2026 South Carolina senate election, will they win?

Will any independent win a U.S. House seat in the 2026 elections?

22% chance

If Javier Milei is reelected, will a republican candidate win the 2028 US presidental election?

45% chance

Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?

Will Kristi Noem be impeached by the house in 2026?

1% chance

America party candidate wins any election in 2026?

1% chance

Will a candidate who is not from a current major political party make it to a U.S. presidential election by 2052?

35% chance

Will anyone elected as a Republican congressperson in 2026, switch parties/caucuses with dems in 2027?

19% chance

Will a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?

69% chance