Resolves yes if one of the top two candidates (by popular vote) in a US presidential election does not identify as a member of either the Democratic or Republican party.
It will still resolve positively if the candidate is from some other party that has gained enough traction to be considered major by resolution.
Resolves no if all such candidates until resolution are either Democrats or Republicans.
This is my first market here on Manifold, so if you have any feedback/suggestions as to the running of this market, I'd be happy to hear them.
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@MoritzBrodel I was referencing the two competing candidates in an election to show that the candidate doesn't have to win the presidency, but has to be one of the two top/final candidates. I edited the wording to make what I was trying to say more clear.
@redsky There are always many competing candidates, for example, in the 2016 election, there was Jill Stein for the Green party. I would suggest making the criterium the top two candidates by popular vote share.