Resolution criteria

• Precondition: Javier Milei must be officially reelected President of Argentina for the 2027–2031 term. Confirmation will rely on Argentina’s official election authorities (Cámara Nacional Electoral and/or the DINE results portal). If Milei is not reelected (including after any runoff), this market resolves N/A. (electoral.gob.ar)

• If the precondition is met: Resolve YES if the Republican Party’s presidential nominee wins the 2028 U.S. presidential election as determined by the official Electoral College count certified by Congress (the National Archives posts the certified results after the joint session). Resolve NO otherwise. If no candidate secures 270 electoral votes and the House elects the President under the 12th Amendment, resolve based on the person the House elects; if that person is the GOP nominee, resolve YES. (archives.gov)

• “Republican candidate” means the ticket whose presidential nominee is officially nominated by the Republican National Convention (or any formal replacement designated by the party before the general election) and appears on the general-election ballot as the Republican Party nominee.