Background

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform using blockchain technology. Users trade outcomes of events using stablecoins with Polymarket emphasizing its non-custodial nature. The platform has faced regulatory scrutiny, including a settlement with the CFTC in January 2022.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the first significant adverse event affecting user funds by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC:

• Nothing horrible happens: Nothing horrible happens

• Smart contract exploited/failure: Vulnerability exploited or failure resulting in significant user fund losses.

• Front-end hacked: Web interface compromised causing significant user losses.

• Rug pull/internal embezzlement: Team members deliberately steal or misuse user funds.

• Stablecoin collapse: USDC or other stablecoin used loses its peg, significantly impacting users.

• Regulatory crackdown: Authorities freeze or seize user assets.

• Other: Any significant adverse event not fitting above categories.

If multiple events occur, resolution will be based on the earliest significant event. If no events occur by 2030, resolve to "Nothing horrible happens." I will use my best judgment in case of ambiguity. Merely controversial market resolutions will not count.