The U.K. Conservative Party last led a national poll in December 2021; since then, the Labour Party have tied or led in every poll. Resolves to YES if a valid poll with the Conservatives leading is published and NO otherwise.

A valid poll must:

– Be a national (Great Britain) Westminster voting intention poll, not a regional poll

– Be based on the current situation, not on some sort of hypothetical

– Have the Conservatives leading, not tied, where this is based off the integer-valued percentages that are published

– Be carried out entirely before the end of 2024

– Be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council

See here for past polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election