Resolves to YES if at least 51 Democrats are elected in the 2023 Virginia House of Delegates election on 7 November 2023. Note that there is no provision for a tiebreaking vote in the chamber, so if Democrats win 50 out of 100 seats this will resolve to NO. It does not matter if Democrats never actually end of controlling the House of Delegates (e.g. if there is a party switch or death after the election), just what the results of the election are.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ74 | |
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| 3 | Ṁ42 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ33 |
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Pros:
It's an odd-year election, and dems have been doing increasingly well as education polarization keeps rising
environment seems to have shifted left since 2021
Youngkin probably helped Rs in 2021 but isn't on the ballot now
cons:
Republicans have an advantage in incumbents
Overall the environment is still pro-R
Youngkin's approval ratings seem pretty good.
@ShakedKoplewitz You haven't mentioned the biggest pro, which is Virginia's Democratic partisan lean. It's very hard for Republicans to win Virginia now. It can pretty much only happen in a red wave year.
Somewhat related market: https://manifold.markets/ForrestTaylor/will-kevin-adams-r-win-the-jan-10-v?referrer=ForrestTaylor