This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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@itsTomekK well even if it somehow reversed due to a bomb, Republicans still did not retain the house in 2023 because they just lost it, so it should resolve
Virginia is a blue state, and it has a nonpartisan redistricting commission, so all else being equal, the House of Delegates should roughly reflect how people actually vote, which will be Democratic in a normal year. Republicans only have a slim majority that they won in 2021, at a time when the electoral environment was worse for Democrats than it has ever been in a long time. I think Democrats will probably flip it, as does this market:
@JosephNoonan the median district is D+5 which is equal to the partisan lean of the state
@SemioticRivalry Makes sense, given the independent redistricting committee. So as I expected, that makes it very difficult for R's to win.