Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🤖 AI

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

YouTube

Entertainment

Hardware

Rabbit R1

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challenge-bet-with-eliezer

 Eliezer has this at >16%; Paul at <8%. Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Technical AI Timelines

IMO Grand Challenge

Mathematics

Third Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI

If there exists an AI system by end of 2026 that can produce systematic literature reviews that are indistinguishable in quality from 

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

US Politics

🗳️ Politics

presidential debate

OpenAI's original definition for AGI is as follows:

Here is a diagram illustrating the governance structure of OpenAI:

The following is a quote from the original post by OpenAI, 

An action that would "hint at" OpenAI achieving AGI would be the exclusion of a specific state of the art AI system from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft while their partnership with Microsoft remains more or less the same structurally (although the composition might change). 

Same market for a longer time-frame is below:

AI Impacts

OpenAI

3/24 3:00 PM: Will the (NO Pelicans) WIN against the (DET Pistons)?

'00':3 '3':2 '3/24':1 'det':12 'pelican':8 'piston':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/24 3:30 PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (LAC Clippers)?

'3':2 '3/24':1 '30':3 '76ers':8 'clipper':13 'lac':12 'phi':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/24 6:00 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against the (MIA Heat)?

'00':3 '3/24':1 '6':2 'cavali':8 'cle':7 'heat':13 'mia':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/24 7:00 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against the (MIL Bucks)?

'00':3 '3/24':1 '7':2 'buck':13 'mil':12 'okc':7 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

3/24 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (MIN Timberwolves)?

'00':3 '3/24':1 '7':2 'gs':7 'min':12 'pm':4 'timberwolv':13 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/24 10:00 PM: Will the (IND Pacers) WIN against the (LAL Lakers)?

'00':3 '10':2 '3/24':1 'ind':7 'laker':13 'lal':12 'pacer':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 7:00 PM: Will (CHA Hornets) WIN against the (CLE Cavaliers)? 

'00':3 '3/25':1 '7':2 'cavali':12 'cha':6 'cle':11 'hornet':7 'pm':4 'win':8

3/25 7:30 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/25':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':12 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'hawk':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 7:30 PM: Will the (DET Pistons) WIN against the (NY Knicks)? 

'3/25':1 '30':3 '7':2 'det':7 'knick':13 'ny':12 'piston':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 7:30 PM: Will the (BKN Nets) WIN against the (TOR Raptors)? 

'3/25':1 '30':3 '7':2 'bkn':7 'net':8 'pm':4 'raptor':13 'tor':12 'win':9

3/25 8:00PM: Will the (WSH Wizards) WIN against the (CHI Bulls)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '8':2 'bull':12 'chi':11 'win':8 'wizard':7 'wsh':6

3/25 8:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (HOU Rockets)? 

'00':3 '3/25':1 '8':2 'blazer':9 'hou':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'rocket':14 'trail':8 'win':10

3/25 8:00PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (SA Spurs)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '8':2 'phx':6 'sa':11 'spur':12 'sun':7 'win':8

3/25 9:00PM: Will the (MEM Grizzlies) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '9':2 'den':11 'grizzli':7 'mem':6 'nugget':12 'win':8

3/25 10:00PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00pm':3 '10':2 '3/25':1 '76ers':7 'king':12 'phi':6 'sac':11 'win':8

3/25 10:30 PM: Will the (IND Pacers) WIN against the (LAC Clippers)? 

'10':2 '3/25':1 '30':3 'clipper':13 'ind':7 'lac':12 'pacer':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/25 9:00PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (UTAH Jazz)? 

'00pm':3 '3/25':1 '9':2 'dal':6 'jazz':12 'maverick':7 'utah':11 'win':8

3/26 7:30 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (MIA Heat)? 

'3/26':1 '30':3 '7':2 'gs':7 'heat':13 'mia':12 'pm':4 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/26 7:30 PM: Will the (LAL Lakers) WIN against the (MIL Bucks)? 

'3/26':1 '30':3 '7':2 'buck':13 'laker':8 'lal':7 'mil':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/26 8:00 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '3/26':1 '8':2 'okc':7 'pelican':13 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

3/26 10:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00':3 '10':2 '3/26':1 'dal':7 'king':13 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'sac':12 'win':9

3/27 7:00 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '7':2 'cavali':8 'cha':12 'cle':7 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '7':2 'gs':7 'magic':13 'orl':12 'pm':4 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/27 7:00 PM: Will the (BKN Nets) WIN against the (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '7':2 'bkn':7 'net':8 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':13 'wsh':12

3/27 7:30 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/27':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':13 'blazer':9 'hawk':14 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

3/27 7:30 PM: Will the (LAC Clippers) WIN against the (PHI 76ers)? 

'3/27':1 '30':3 '7':2 '76ers':13 'clipper':8 'lac':7 'phi':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 7:30 PM: Will the (NY Knicks) WIN against the (TOR Raptors)? 

'3/27':1 '30':3 '7':2 'knick':8 'ny':7 'pm':4 'raptor':13 'tor':12 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the (IND Pacers) WIN against the (CHI Bulls)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'bull':13 'chi':12 'ind':7 'pacer':8 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the (LAL Lakers) WIN against the (MEM Grizzlies)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'grizzli':13 'laker':8 'lal':7 'mem':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the (DET Pistons) WIN against the (MIN Timberwolves)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'det':7 'min':12 'piston':8 'pm':4 'timberwolv':13 'win':9

3/27 8:00 PM: Will the HOU Rockets) WIN against the (OKC Thunder)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '8':2 'hou':7 'okc':12 'pm':4 'rocket':8 'thunder':13 'win':9

3/27 9:00 PM: Will the (SA Spurs) WIN against the (UTAH Jazz)? 

'00':3 '3/27':1 '9':2 'jazz':13 'pm':4 'sa':7 'spur':8 'utah':12 'win':9

3/27 10:00 PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'00':3 '10':2 '3/27':1 'den':12 'nugget':13 'phx':7 'pm':4 'sun':8 'win':9

3/28 7:30 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/28':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':12 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'hawk':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/28 8:00 PM: Will the (MIL Bucks) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '3/28':1 '8':2 'buck':8 'mil':7 'pelican':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'cha':12 'gs':7 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against the (IND Pacers)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'ind':12 'la':7 'laker':8 'pacer':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Clippers) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'clipper':8 'la':7 'magic':13 'orl':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:00 PM: Will the (DET Pistons) WIN against the (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '7':2 'det':7 'piston':8 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':13 'wsh':12

3/29 7:30 PM: Will the (CHI Bulls) WIN against the (BKN Nets)?

'3/29':1 '30':3 '7':2 'bkn':12 'bull':8 'chi':7 'net':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 7:30 PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (CLE Cavaliers)? 

'3/29':1 '30':3 '7':2 '76ers':8 'cavali':13 'cle':12 'phi':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/29 8:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (MIA Heat)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '8':2 'blazer':9 'heat':14 'mia':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

3/29 8:00 PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (OKC Thunder)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '8':2 'okc':12 'phx':7 'pm':4 'sun':8 'thunder':13 'win':9

3/29 8:00 PM: Will the (NY Knicks) WIN against the (SA Spurs)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '8':2 'knick':8 'ny':7 'pm':4 'sa':12 'spur':13 'win':9

3/29 9:00 PM: Will the (MIN Timberwolves) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'00':3 '3/29':1 '9':2 'den':12 'min':7 'nugget':13 'pm':4 'timberwolv':8 'win':9

3/29 9:30 PM: Will the (HOU Rockets) WIN against the (UTH Jazz)? 

'3/29':1 '30':3 '9':2 'hou':7 'jazz':13 'pm':4 'rocket':8 'uth':12 'win':9

3/29 10:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00':3 '10':2 '3/29':1 'dal':7 'king':13 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'sac':12 'win':9

3/30 5:00 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '3/30':1 '5':2 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'pelican':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/30 7:00 PM: Will the (MEM Grizzlies) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '3/30':1 '7':2 'grizzli':8 'magic':13 'mem':7 'orl':12 'pm':4 'win':9

3/30 7:30 PM: Will the (MIL Bucks) WIN against the (ATL Hawks)? 

'3/30':1 '30':3 '7':2 'atl':12 'buck':8 'hawk':13 'mil':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 3:30 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against the (DEN Nuggets)? 

'3':2 '3/31':1 '30':3 'cavali':8 'cle':7 'den':12 'nugget':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against the (BKN Nets)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 'bkn':12 'la':7 'laker':8 'net':13 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (LA Clippers) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 'cha':12 'clipper':8 'hornet':13 'la':7 'pm':4 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (PHI 76ers) WIN against the (TOR Raptors)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 '76ers':8 'phi':7 'pm':4 'raptor':13 'tor':12 'win':9

3/31 6:00 PM: Will the (MIA Heat) WIN against the (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '6':2 'heat':8 'mia':7 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':13 'wsh':12

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against the (NY Knicks)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'knick':13 'ny':12 'okc':7 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against the (HOU Rockets)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'dal':7 'hou':12 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'rocket':13 'win':9

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (GS Warriors) WIN against the (SA Spurs)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'gs':7 'pm':4 'sa':12 'spur':13 'warrior':8 'win':9

3/31 9:00 PM: Will the (UTH Jazz) WIN against the (SAC Kings)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '9':2 'jazz':8 'king':13 'pm':4 'sac':12 'uth':7 'win':9

3/31 7:00 PM: Will the (CHI Bulls) WIN against the (MIN Timberwolves)? 

'00':3 '3/31':1 '7':2 'bull':8 'chi':7 'min':12 'pm':4 'timberwolv':13 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (BOS Celtics) WIN against the (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'bos':7 'celtic':8 'cha':12 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (MEM Grizzlies) WIN against the (DET Pistons)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'det':12 'grizzli':8 'mem':7 'piston':13 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (BKN Nets) WIN against the (IND Pacers)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'bkn':7 'ind':12 'net':8 'pacer':13 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 7:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against the (ORL Magic)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '7':2 'blazer':9 'magic':14 'orl':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

4/1 8:00 PM: Will the (ATL Hawks) WIN against the (CHI Bulls)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '8':2 'atl':7 'bull':13 'chi':12 'hawk':8 'pm':4 'win':9

4/1 8:00 PM: Will the (PHX Suns) WIN against the (NO Pelicans)? 

'00':3 '4/1':1 '8':2 'pelican':13 'phx':7 'pm':4 'sun':8 'win':9

4/2 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against (TOR Raptors)? 

'00':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 'la':7 'laker':8 'pm':4 'raptor':12 'tor':11 'win':9

4/2 7:00 PM: Will the (MIL Bucks) WIN against (WSH Wizards)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 'buck':8 'mil':7 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':12 'wsh':11

4/2 7:30 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against (PHI 76ers)?

'30':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 '76ers':12 'okc':7 'phi':11 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

4/2 7:30 PM: Will the (NY Knicks) WIN against (MIA Heat)?

'30':3 '4/2':1 '7':2 'heat':12 'knick':8 'mia':11 'ny':7 'pm':4 'win':9

4/2 8:00 PM: Will the (HOU Rockets) WIN against (MIN Timberwolves)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '8':2 'hou':7 'min':11 'pm':4 'rocket':8 'timberwolv':12 'win':9

4/2 9:00 PM: Will the (SA Spurs) WIN against (DEN Nuggets)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '9':2 'den':11 'nugget':12 'pm':4 'sa':7 'spur':8 'win':9

4/2 9:00 PM: Will the (CLE Cavaliers) WIN against (UTH Jazz)?

'00':3 '4/2':1 '9':2 'cavali':8 'cle':7 'jazz':12 'pm':4 'uth':11 'win':9

4/2 10:00 PM: Will the (LA Clippers) WIN against (SAC Kings)?

'00':3 '10':2 '4/2':1 'clipper':8 'king':12 'la':7 'pm':4 'sac':11 'win':9

4/2 10:00 PM: Will the (DAL Mavericks) WIN against (GS Warriors)?

'00':3 '10':2 '4/2':1 'dal':7 'gs':11 'maverick':8 'pm':4 'warrior':12 'win':9

4/3 7:00 PM: Will the (POR Trail Blazers) WIN against (CHA Hornets)? 

'00':3 '4/3':1 '7':2 'blazer':9 'cha':12 'hornet':13 'pm':4 'por':7 'trail':8 'win':10

4/3 7:00 PM: Will the (LA Lakers) WIN against (WSH Wizards)? 

'00':3 '4/3':1 '7':2 'la':7 'laker':8 'pm':4 'win':9 'wizard':12 'wsh':11

4/3 7:30 PM: Will the (DET Pistons) WIN against (ATL Hawks)? 

'30':3 '4/3':1 '7':2 'atl':11 'det':7 'hawk':12 'piston':8 'pm':4 'win':9

4/3 7:30 PM: Will the (OKC Thunder) WIN against (BOS Celtics)? 

'30':3 '4/3':1 '7':2 'bos':11 'celtic':12 'okc':7 'pm':4 'thunder':8 'win':9

4/3 7:30 PM: Will the (IND Pacers) WIN against (BKN Nets)? 

'30':3 '4/3':1 '7':2 'bkn':11 'ind':7 'net':12 'pacer':8 'pm':4 'win':9