Resolves to PROB according to poll at market close. I reserve the right to ignore any blatant market manipulation. I'll leave a 72 hour window where people can vote after the market is closed.
Given the fuzzy nature of these conepts, I won't personally restrict any definitions here and leave it up to the bettors to decide what is the most reasonable way to think about it in light of the current public discourse.
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I am amazed at how everyone is fooled by the trolling in this question. By voting YES, you are essentially contributing to transphobia and violence against trans women (NO HYPHEN).
The one-word transwoman or hyphenated trans-woman imply that trans women are a "third gender," distinct from woman. By including the space, trans is just an adjective modifying a particular type of woman, just like Asian woman or young woman or liberal woman.
Trans women are women.
Trans-women are not.
There is a big difference.
@Mcbeebee Please let me know how to identify when someone is enunciating the hyphen irl. I haven’t yet mastered this level of context in interpersonal communication. Do they say trans-hyphen-woman? Is there a long pause? A short pause?
is tomato a fruit? words are labels which compress reality, glossing over detail in order to make things easier to express, faster to communicate.
[people who look visibly like trans women to you] can be more accurately modeled as women than as men in the vast majority of cases.
[people who claim to be trans women] can usually be accurately be modeled accurately as women
and yet modeling trans women as a separate thing from cis women leads to more accurate predictions, because trans women are non-central women who differ from the average woman physiologically and culturally.
biological differences go beyond genitals and secondary sex characteristics - being trans correlates with mental illness, higher IQ, EDS,
ime trans women are more likely than cis women to be poly, lewd, feel strong romantic affection, be into tech / nerdy stuff, ... (some of this is sample bias surely)
more accurate still is to view various personality/culture traits as following a distribution, where trans-women and cis-women's distributions overlap at the tails yet have different peaks
even more accurate is to model your friends's characteristics individually based off of your deep knowledge of them, as people. once you know how fast your friend runs, you do not gain extra information about their speed from their skin color.
Or a different answer is: what do you need the label "woman" for?
In you own thoughts, you should use whatever abstractions get you the best and quickest predictions for whatever you are doing. When speaking - it depends. If the conversation is specifically about gender you might need to delve into details and use longer words. If your conversation is about anything else you should just use whatever pronouns lead to the least confusion and inconvenience; whatever lets you focus on the actual topic. If the conversation is about the language of gender, about the label of "woman" itself - then re-evaluate your life choices and go touch grass because dictionaries are not arbiters of truth and no cunning linguist has ever started a fortune 500 company.
I think gender is more phenomenological and about how others view you, and so depends on how you appear and how you behave, whether you "pass".
So I'd say most mtf trans people who make a conscious effort to appear more womanly will be / are women, but if for example you are still not publicly trans, and have made no effort to transition, you are whatever gender you present at.
The statement "all trans women are women" would be wrong but "most trans women are women" or "some trans women are women" would be right.
@hmys The first definition that comes up on Google (Oxford languages) seems to support this viewpoint: "a person who was registered as male at birth but who lives and identifies as a woman; a transgender woman." Most other dictionaries I've checked don't include the "live as" part though.
@hmys I think gender, at its core, is an expression of self, not so much a label from others, at least in its modern definition. Although your interpretation is interesting.
I used to ask my friends to just use whatever pronouns they actually perceive me as. What you see is what you get. If you see me as a man, I'd rather believe that you see me as a man; let me not be attached to beliefs I do not want. But normies get confused by that. It's quite impractical.
And also one of them objected that what I ask him to call me affects how he sees me. Which is fair. I think this is especially true in online spaces where your identity-presentation-expression is all there is for anyone else to perceive.
@Sinclair I was saying, I think that's how gender is perceived by most people, as an expression of self and not a label. (And therefore how people would respond in a poll). Not necessarily what I think it should be or what is most practical, I'd have to think about that.
@levifinkelstein Nothing political or anything. I just think this market is overvalued based on the average opinion across the whole population. Obviously manifold users are only a small subset of that population, and I don't expect to make a profit on this market, but it's just clear that "are trans-women women" has always been a vacuous question. It's a matter of definitions, and there are two accepted ones - the bio-genetic perspective and the social perspective. I have no opinions on which usage (gender-based or sex-based) we use, but I just thought it was strange that this market was being bought incessantly upwards. Again, not at all knowledgeable ab identity studies or whatever, but I just thought it was somewhat weird that the market was being pushed so high. Population bias? Fear of social represcussions filtering out individuals with differing opinions? I doubt the latter, but I do think that this market being valued highly on yes does reinforce a vicious cycle. It's an opinion-based market and people want to profit. If the market is currently being pushed constantly upward, a profit-interested agent has no reason to buy no, and so the sentiment strengthens, as people will start only buying yes in a market that it looks - for whatever reason - like everyone is affirming.
@ElijahBodden I’m trans (though trans man) and I voted yes, but thinking the market is overvalued is fair af