Are trans-women women?

resolved Oct 1

Yes

For this market: https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/are-transwomen-women

98.7% chance. Resolves to PROB according to poll at market close. I reserve the right to ignore any blatant market manipulation. I'll leave a 72 hour window where people can vote after the market is closed. Given the fuzzy nature of these conepts, I won't personally restrict any definitions here and leave it up to the bettors to decide what is the most reasonable way to think about it in light of the current public discourse.

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Isn't this just a question of dialect?

In the dialect of English I speak, only adult females (i.e. the humans with the structures meant to produce eggs) are women. And "gender" is just a polite word for "sex". So I voted "No".

But in the a lot of the USA, it seems like the word "woman" means something very different (something to do with "gender", which in turn means something very different)... and perhaps woman doesn't really have any particular definition at the moment.

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