Will 100 million humanoid robots have been produced by 2035?
56
2.6k
2034
37%
chance

Resolution will be based on this definition of humanoid robot:


Humanoid robots are service robots built to mimic human motion and interaction. Like all service robots, they provide value by automating tasks in a way that leads to cost-savings and productivity. Humanoid robots can use the same (but not necessarily all) equipment and environment as humans.

Apr 24, 12:17am: Will 100 million humanoid robots been produced by 2035? → Will 100 million humanoid robots have been produced by 2035?

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100 000 000 humanoid robots?
No way

predicts YES

@Aizej Have you also considered whether humanoid robots introduced into the manufacturing process would make more humanoid robots, faster?

predicts NO

@parhizj when i searched, i found that 553,052 industrial robots were installed in factories last year. By this pace there would be about 20 mil industrial robots by 2035. Not even mentioning that industrial robots are not humanoid.

Wouldnt a toy sized humanoid robot qualify for this market's resolution? Would make the unit production a bit more feasible.

predicts YES

@ShitakiIntaki I think not as humanoid robot means replacing humans doing human tasks.

@parhizj nope just human shaped machine.

predicts YES

@ShitakiIntaki I googled 'definition humanoid robot' as seen in image.

I combined definitions from the top two pages besides wikipedia to create this definition I will use to resolve the market:

Humanoid robots are service robots built to mimic human motion and interaction. Like all service robots, they provide value by automating tasks in a way that leads to cost-savings and productivity. Humanoid robots can use the same equipment and environment as humans.

https://www.automate.org/a3-content/service-robots-humanoid-robots

For comparison, only about 79 million cars are manufactured each year.

Another comparison - it took Tesla 10 years to scale up from 22,000 cars produced a year to 1.3 million (https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/tesla-facts/#how-many-tesla-vehicles-are-sold-each-year). So the humanoid robot industry would need to grow much more rapidly than tesla starting today, and there are currently no signs of it growing rapidly.

@YoavTzfati Actually, it does seem to be growing, but my best estimate is that it will only reach around 10 million robots by 2035.

predicts YES

@YoavTzfati The market is about total manufactured so if we make it to 20 million units per year by 2029 across all manufactures then it would resolve yes by 2035. Given expected economic value of capable robots, and that they require less material than cars, it seems possible to me. But yea unclear what odds of that the trends point to.

@lesaun If robots weigh 50kg, that's 1/27 a compact car. In terms of materials and complexity of components of modern cars that ratio may also hold true. If it doesn't scale it will be because the robots are not versatile enough in their handling different tasks. I am betting YES.