Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2034?
21
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2034
55%
chance

Resolves as YES if at least one million humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2034.

Different years:


/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f3756

/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact

/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m

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/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-04a4cc646b5b

/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-b852297a6f2a (this question)

Other reference points for manufacture of 1M humanoid robots:

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These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.

Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 10kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.

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For this to be true atleast a doubling of capacity will need to happen every year until 2034. I hope it happens, but I'm not ready to bet on it.