Will total applications for asylum in the UK be higher in 2025 than in 2024?
6
100Ṁ136
2026
28%
chance

Background. The Home Office regularly publishes statistics on immigration to the UK. According to their statistics, 77,066 asylum applications were lodged in the UK in the year ending September 2024.

Full question. Will total applications for asylum in the UK be higher in the year ending September 2025 than in the year ending September 2024?

Resolution Criteria

  • The market will resolve YES if the number of asylum applications in the year ending September 2025 is strictly greater than the number of asylum applications in the year ending September 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.

  • The number of asylum applications will be taken from the Home Office release 'Asylum and resettlement summary tables'. This is expected to be updated in November 2025 with the numbers for the year ending September 2025.

  • The market will be resolved as soon as the Home Office releases this data. In the very unlikely event that the data has not been released by this market's official resolution date (1 January 2026), the market will resolve as NA.

Data source: to view the latest release of the Home Office's statistics, see: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables#asylum-and-resettlement For detailed information on exactly how the Home Office counts the number of asylum claims, download the table 'Asylum and resettlement summary tables, year ending September 2024' go to the tab 'Asy_01a', and read the footnotes.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
2mo

The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.

Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.

Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules