Background. The Home Office regularly publishes statistics on immigration to the UK. According to their statistics, 77,066 asylum applications were lodged in the UK in the year ending September 2024.
Full question. Will total applications for asylum in the UK be higher in the year ending September 2025 than in the year ending September 2024?
Resolution Criteria
The market will resolve YES if the number of asylum applications in the year ending September 2025 is strictly greater than the number of asylum applications in the year ending September 2024. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
The number of asylum applications will be taken from the Home Office release 'Asylum and resettlement summary tables'. This is expected to be updated in November 2025 with the numbers for the year ending September 2025.
The market will be resolved as soon as the Home Office releases this data. In the very unlikely event that the data has not been released by this market's official resolution date (1 January 2026), the market will resolve as NA.
Data source: to view the latest release of the Home Office's statistics, see: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables#asylum-and-resettlement For detailed information on exactly how the Home Office counts the number of asylum claims, download the table 'Asylum and resettlement summary tables, year ending September 2024' go to the tab 'Asy_01a', and read the footnotes.
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