Based on the quarter on quarter change per the ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases
“March 2026” means the report published by the ONS in that month, which reports data up to the end of the previous month
Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if UK job vacancies increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the ONS "Vacancies and jobs in the UK" report published in the specified month. The market resolves NO if vacancies decrease or remain flat. Resolution is based on the three-month average vacancy figures reported by the ONS, comparing the latest quarter to the previous quarter.
For example, if the March 2026 report shows vacancies increased from the September-November 2025 period to the December 2025-February 2026 period, the market resolves YES.
See the ONS bulletin at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/latest for the latest data.
Background
UK vacancies have remained broadly flat across recent periods, with early estimates in November 2025 to January 2026 showing a small increase of 2,000 (0.3%) to 726,000, compared with August to October 2025. Total estimated vacancies were down by 73,000 (9.2%) in November 2025 to January 2026 from the level of a year ago, decreasing in 14 of the 18 industry sectors. Vacancies have been falling steadily since mid-2022 and have been below pre-pandemic levels since the beginning of 2025.
Considerations
There were 2.6 unemployed people per vacancy in October to December 2025, up from 1.9 in October to December 2024. Hiring headwinds have been considerable, partly reflecting tax changes announced in late 2024 including a significant rise in employers' social security contributions and a further large increase in the minimum wage, with the Chancellor announcing further tax rises and a planned 4.1% rise in the main rate of the minimum wage.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000