Conditional on the following events, before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

4kṀ230

2100

66%

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

45%

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

34%

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

13%

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

13%

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

8. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS NOT insufficient

This question originally appeared in a study by the Forecasting Research Institute, which explored a method for identifying forecasting questions that AI experts found to be the best indicators of catastrophic risk due to AI. The findings of the study are the subject of a forthcoming report titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics”. The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. This is one of several questions that experts found most informative. We're excited to see if the forecasts of the Manifold community are similar to those found in the study. We will link the report here when it is released this month.

The overall question and multiple choice (conditional) questions above resolve based on the following Manifold questions: