This question originally appeared in a study by the Forecasting Research Institute, which explored a method for identifying forecasting questions that AI experts found to be the best indicators of catastrophic risk due to AI. The findings of the study are the subject of a forthcoming report titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics”. The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. This is one of several questions that experts found most informative. We’re excited to see how the forecasts of the Manifold community compare to those found in the study. We will link the report here when it is released this month.

This question resolves Yes if revenue from deep learning has at least doubled over each two-year period between 2023 and 2030 (inclusive), as reported by at least one of the following market research organizations: Fortune Business Insights, Allied Market Research, or Grand View Research.

In the event that there is conflicting data between the above-named market research sources, this question resolves Yes so long as at least one of them reports the required doubling throughout the period.