In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI in 2023?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
Will I observe significant Negative Polarization around AI generated art in 2023?
Will >$100M be invested in dedicated AI Alignment organizations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety?
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
Will I use an x.ai product during 2023?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related?
dp40% chance
Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
Google Trends: Will "AI" search term popularity peak again in 2023?
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?
49. Will AI win a programming competition in 2023?
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
