Resolves YES if NVIDIA's share of total AI accelerator revenue in calendar H2 2026 (July 1 - December 31, 2026) exceeds 80%.

Numerator: NVIDIA's data-center segment revenue for H2 2026, as reported in NVIDIA's Q3 FY2027 + Q4 FY2027 earnings releases (NVIDIA's fiscal year is offset; calendar Q3 2026 = NVIDIA fiscal Q3 FY27 ending Oct/Nov 2026; calendar Q4 2026 = NVIDIA fiscal Q4 FY27 ending Jan/Feb 2027).

Denominator: sum of NVIDIA + AMD (Instinct/MI segment) + Intel (Gaudi/AI segment) + Broadcom AI ASIC + Marvell AI ASIC + Google TPU + Amazon Trainium/Inferentia + Microsoft Maia + Meta MTIA, all per H2 2026 segment-level revenue from public 10-K / 10-Q filings or equivalent. Where a hyperscaler doesn't separately disclose AI accelerator revenue, that segment is excluded from the denominator (with rationale).

Source of truth: SEC 10-K / 10-Q filings filed on or before 2027-02-28; supplemented by public earnings call transcripts where helpful.

Resolution date: 2027-02-28 (after Q4 2026 earnings reporting).

About this market. This market is part of SCB/SCO Reference Run #001 — AI Compute (30-day longitudinal demonstration) under Leadership Under Uncertainty. It is a research-demonstration corpus, not a commercial product.

Open-Sources-Only Commitment. This market resolves only against publicly accessible sources (SEC filings, government data, public benchmark publications, public corporate communications). Subscription-gated analyst content is not used in resolution.

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Pre-registration. Question wording, resolution criteria, and close date were locked before any market data was observed and cryptographically anchored on day 0 of the run via the SCB/SCO daily Merkle seal. See protocol.