Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?
Basic
45
12k
2033
0.6%
2025
·
6mo
1.9%
2026
·
6mo
1.7%
2027
·
6mo
30%
2028
·
6mo
40%
2029
·
6mo
57%
2030
·
6mo
71%
2031
·
6mo
78%
2032
·
6mo
82%
2033
·
6mo
86%
2034
·
6mo

Once a human lands on the moon in year X, all the years after the year X will resolve to YES as well.

The "human" landing on the "moon" must be a safe landing in the sense that the human lands on the moon alive. That's all that matters.

i will resolve the 2024 option soon after the creation of the market, as it was only to create continuity.

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@creator will the year of the landing itself resolve YES or NO?

"will resolve to YES as well" sounds like it will resolve YES; but the fact that 2024 is already resolved NO and the market closes at the end of 2033, with 2034 being the last option, seems to indicate that it will resolve NO.

@dp9000 "by" means before usually in such a context. If something happens by 2023, it happened in 2022 or before - that's the usage in this market at least

@lastuserhere I understood it because you resolved 2024 as No, but it would be easier to parse if you changed the title to "Before" instead of By. It would be non-ambiguous that way.

Didn't a human land on the moon in 1969?

@Snarflak Yes, this market is for now and onwards

.

There are now like five versions of this market 😭 As well as a billion individual "by x year" markets

@calderknight This. 😑

Which country would the next person to land on the moon be from?

@lastuserhere

This market gives over 10% that someone will walk on the moon this year.

https://manifold.markets/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l?r=U2Vjb25kSGFuZFlU

@SecondHandYT Since loans are no longer a thing there's less incentive betting on longer term markets. I moved it down to 6% but it should obviously be a lot lower to be in line with other markets.