Which country would land the next person on the moon?

Question

If there's a mission with more than 1 person from more than 1 country, the market will consider which of them first step on the surface of our moon.

If that person holds multiple countries' citizenship, then it resolves to whatever country's space organization sent that person.

If even that is ambiguous, in case of a joint/collaborative effort, then it resolves to the birth country of that person.

By landing, it is meant that the person is alive after landing.

It will not count if there's an explosion upon touchdown and the person dies, for example.

It does not have to be a perfect landing. The point is that the person puts their feet on the moon alive.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, China, followed by United States of America and India are most likely. See the market for live updates (77 traders, as of Mar 16, 2026).