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US strikes Iran by...?
26
αΉ€125αΉ€2k
Dec 31
1%
February 23
45%
February 28
59%
March 31
24%
June 30
18%
December 31

  • Update 2026-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This is a mutually exclusive date market. Each answer option represents an exact date, not "by that date" or "after that date".

    • If the event occurs on a specific date, ONLY that date's option resolves YES

    • ALL other options resolve NO (including later dates)

    • Example: If strikes occur on Feb 23, only "Feb 23" resolves YES; later dates like "Feb 28" or "Jun 30" resolve NO

Market context
Middle East
Iran
Israel-Iran Conflict
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Clarification: This is a mutually exclusive date market.

If it happens on Feb 23, ONLY the "Feb 23" option resolves YES, and ALL others resolve NO (0.0).

Later dates like "Feb 28" or "Jun 30" will NOT pay outβ€”they predict "exactly" that date, not "after".

sold αΉ€9 YES

@konga what are these resolution terms lol. pls clarify this in the future

bought αΉ€30 NO

@konga you also need to add a lot more detail. what is considered a strike, what is time zone is the consideration, etc.

sold αΉ€7 NO

@konga do you want to N/A this market? https://manifold.markets/prismatic/us-strikes-iran-by is an identical market

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