Same as polymarket resolution (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by):
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
I may add more dates to reflect any additional Polymarket options at my discretion.
Update 2026-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deference to Polymarket: This market will follow the Polymarket resolution for any ambiguous cases or interpretations not explicitly covered in the description.
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@traders Mirror market for Israel strikes on Iran: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/israel-strikes-iran-by
(sorry for the pings, doing housekeeping on my markets)
@traders Mirror market for Israel strikes on Iran: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/israel-strikes-iran-by
(sorry for the pings, doing housekeeping on my markets)
@mods how to I change the default view of the market. I clicked the default view option by accident so its not organized by date anymore
yeah there isn't rly a fix (afaik) other than renaming the options so that they are alphabetically ordered and then ordering by A-Z. eg 2026-03-01, 2026-03-15, etc.
@traders is there interest in adding additional dates? I was thinking 1-2 between end of feb and march 31
The March 31 resolution (Polymarket YES 55% vs Swift Centre YES 68% as of Jan 26) will provide early evidence relevant to this market:
https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-swift-centre-beat-polymark?r=VGFudGFsb3N0
@moobunny Eastern time; for example if nothing happens by the time it is 12:00:00am EST Jan 31, then that entry resolves no
@prismatic The convention I’m aware of says that 12 am Jan 31 is the start of Jan 31, not the end. Is that what you mean? That is, do you mean the minute after 11:59 pm Jan 30, or the minute after 11:59 pm Jan 31?