Same as polymarket resolution (https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by):
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
I may add more dates to reflect any additional Polymarket options at my discretion.
Update 2026-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Deference to Polymarket: This market will follow the Polymarket resolution for any ambiguous cases or interpretations not explicitly covered in the description.
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@traders Mirror market for Israel strikes on Iran: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/israel-strikes-iran-by
(sorry for the pings, doing housekeeping on my markets)
@traders https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2027635991461167234
Hopefully to resolve some ambiguity, it seems confirmed that it is a joint Israel-US Strike
@Quroe I think if boom sticks start flying, not much we can do about it anyways. Might as well head to bed :)
@Cactus Look, we all have the human condition to think we could survive the Titan submersible sub implosion if we were in it. If you put that legendarily infamously overconfident commenter in that sub, you wouldn't think he was that crazy for thinking like that live in the moment.
polymarket is freaking out right now? (seems like an israeli strike?)
@traders Mirror market for Israel strikes on Iran: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/israel-strikes-iran-by
(sorry for the pings, doing housekeeping on my markets)
@mods how to I change the default view of the market. I clicked the default view option by accident so its not organized by date anymore
yeah there isn't rly a fix (afaik) other than renaming the options so that they are alphabetically ordered and then ordering by A-Z. eg 2026-03-01, 2026-03-15, etc.