With some recent news that Israel may pursue strikes on its own without US support, I thought this would be a good mirror market to https://manifold.markets/prismatic/us-strikes-iran-by.

Resolution Criteria

Same as polymarket resolution for Feb 28, March 31, and June 30. For other dates, it will be at my discretion, but I will follow the same resolution criteria when making determinations. Possible dates will mirror those offered by the US market.
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-by-march-31-2026
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.