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MANIFOLD
Is Duncan Sabien a large language model?
30
Ṁ3.5kṀ17k
resolved Jun 4
Resolved
NO
Note that this ended @ 5% probability. Still haven't met the guy.
+50%
on

Extending this to the end of the year, especially since I've been kicked out of Less Online | Summer Camp | Manifest

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Extending this to the end of the year, especially since I've been kicked out of Less Online | Summer Camp | Manifest

If anyone is interested in the inverse of this market: https://manifold.markets/BelacHillcrest/is-caleb-ditchfield-a-real-person

This question was a fascinating experiment in "will using the best tools available to me in the smartest way I know to test a crazy theory make people uncomfortable".

And yep. It did. Shame.

@mods can you cancel this market? I have no good way to verify. Thanks

@klob hey Caleb - as Duncan is at the event and many people have met him personally, it's clear he's not a Large Language Model. the market can resolve No as there's no matter of subjectivity here. would you like to resolve it or for Mods to do it? either are fine, just let me know.

Mods can resolve as no, even tho I've literally never seen the guy and probably won't since he thinks I'm some weirdo stalker 🙄

Enough people have now verified that he isn't, in fact, an LLM that I am happy to resolve this market as "nope, he's not an LLM".

bought Ṁ150 NO

resolves no? @mods

who is this guy lol

Extending this to the end of the year, especially since I've been kicked out of Less Online | Summer Camp | Manifest

Still unsure of resolution criteria. Will figure this out once I have time to sit at my desk and think.

Just threw out my back so that might be a little longer than planned, though. Maybe like a week from now.

edit: I'm gonna cancel this market. I guess.

Looks like it got auto resolved (by mods) correct. Excellent, cheers all.

Taking suggestions for how to ACTUALLY verify him. This wasn't intended to be a bid to meet Duncan IRL, and like, check Duncan's id.

Ugh, maybe Worldcoin?

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 8% order

@klob Clarifying question: are you personally uncertain that Duncan is a real person?

@CalebW I find it interesting that your name is also Caleb.

Resolution criteria?

bought Ṁ6,000 NO

What if we have met him and we can just like…vouch that he’s a human

ye but I haven't met YOU now have I.

What if someone has met @HWH and someone has met that person and someone has met that person who's met you

Is this a trick question?