LLM reaches >90% Brier score on Prophet Arena by 2026?
4
1kแน611Dec 31
28%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As of 2025-08-18, the current leader in Brier score is GPT-5 with 82.21%.
Resolves YES, if an LLM manages to reach over 90% on the leaderboard for at least one week (to prevent lucky outliers).
Resolves NA, if the website stops being maintained for at least one month.
Resolves NO, otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
What organization will top the LLM leaderboards on LMArena at end of 2025? ๐ค๐
LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?
60% chance
Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?
85% chance
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
400-point pwn solved by an LLM by 2025
47% chance
Will there be an LLM which scores above what a human can do in 2 hours on METR's eval suite before 2026?
70% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
59% chance
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?