Resolution Criteria

The execution is scheduled for January 14, 2026. This market resolves YES if credible reporting confirms that 26-year-old protester Erfan Soltani has been executed by the Iranian regime by January 31st, 2026. Resolution will be based on reports from established international human rights organizations (Iran Human Rights, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch) or major news outlets. Due to the nationwide internet shutdown with 99% of internet access cut off, making it difficult to verify arrests, deaths, and legal proceedings, resolution may require delayed confirmation. The market resolves NO if January 31st passes without credible confirmation of execution.

Background

Iran is preparing to execute 26-year-old protester Erfan Soltani, who was sentenced to death for "waging war against God" after being denied legal rights and a fair trial. He was arrested on Thursday in connection with protests in the city of Fardis near Karaj. Soltani's relatives were informed on January 11 that he had been sentenced to death and were allowed only a brief, 10-minute final visit before the scheduled execution. Islamic Republic authorities have a history of misleading families about death sentences as a means of exerting pressure—in the case of Abbas Deris, a November 2019 protester, authorities told his family he had been convicted of murder to force him to seek forgiveness.

Considerations

While Islamic Republic authorities have vowed to deal swiftly with cases, they also have a history of misleading families about death sentences as a means of exerting pressure. Legal experts state that the timeline provided to the family is legally impossible under Iran's own criminal code—it is legally impossible to arrest someone and execute them within three days, with the absolute minimum being ten days even with a state-appointed lawyer, and at least thirty days with an independent lawyer. This suggests the announced execution date may not be reliable, and the regime may use the threat as psychological pressure rather than follow through immediately.