Resolution criteria

Ali Khamenei has served as the second supreme leader of Iran since 1989. This market resolves YES if Khamenei is no longer serving as Supreme Leader by June 30, 2026, through any means including death, resignation, removal by the Assembly of Experts, or loss of effective control. The market resolves NO if Khamenei remains in the position on June 30, 2026.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Iranian government or credible international news sources confirming a change in the Supreme Leader position. According to Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, if the incumbent Supreme Leader dies in office or is dismissed, the Assembly of Experts should immediately hold a session and appoint a successor.

Background

Khamenei is 86 years old and his tenure as supreme leader, spanning 36 years, makes him the longest-serving head of state in the Middle East. In September 2022, it was reported that Khamenei had undergone surgery for bowel obstruction and had to cancel a number of meetings. The leader's health crises have escalated dramatically since his 2014 prostate cancer surgery with reports of advanced cognitive impairment and even coma-like episodes.

At least 62 people have been killed, including 14 security personnel and 48 protesters, since demonstrations began on December 28, 2025. According to intelligence reports, Khamenei has formulated a plan (plan B) to flee from Tehran to Moscow in the event that domestic unrest escalates beyond the control of state security forces.

Considerations

As of January 2026, no person has been officially declared as the heir to Khamenei nor as a nominee, though various sources such as Reuters and BBC News have reported on potential candidates. The supreme leader of Iran can be constitutionally removed by the Assembly of Experts if the Assembly deems that he is not sufficiently just or pious or unable to project political and social leadership. However, the process for electing members to the Assembly of Experts is heavily skewed in favor of jurists loyal to the supreme leader, making it highly unlikely they would ever deem him unfit—except under the most extraordinary circumstances.