Will a socialist be elected president by 2040?
Basic
10
Ṁ2352041
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if a president-elect in 2040 or before identifies or identified (and did not repudiate this identification) as a socialist. This market resolves NO if this does not happen.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Joshua A democratic socialist would count, but a social democrat would not. They need to explicitly use the label socialist. However, if they previously identified as a democratic socialist, and come election time they identify as a social democrat, but they do not repudiate their former identification, I would still consider them to be a socialist.
Related questions
Related questions
Will AOC run for President by 2040?
54% chance
Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?
76% chance
What kind of presidents will we have by 2040?
Will there be a female president of the US by the year 2040?
77% chance
Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?
48% chance
Who will be elected president in 2040?
Will the United States elect a woman president by 2030?
35% chance
Will a Democrat win Florida for President by 2050?
64% chance
Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?
57% chance
Will a US senator, other than Bernie Sanders, identify as a socialist before 2030?
52% chance