Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2024?
8
56
Ṁ391Ṁ190
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
When integrated with tools such as formal proof verifiers, internet search, and symbolic math packages, I expect, say, 2026-level AI, when used properly, will be a trustworthy co-author in mathematical research, and in many other fields as well.
except for 2024
Resolves YES if a real professional mathematician claims this happened for them, unless consensus of other experts is that it didn't happen
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ28 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
More related questions
Related questions
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
20% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
33% chance
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2032?
72% chance
Will an AI alignment research paper be featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal? (2024)
30% chance
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
31% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
63% chance
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
45% chance
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?
65% chance
Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
31% chance
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
45% chance