Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?
29
1kṀ3481
2100
70%
chance

If both women and non-women take the next step at the same time, resolves to the fraction of women among them. If for some reason it is not clear whether a woman was first, resolves to the fraction of women among the crew of the mission.

  • Update 2025-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

    • Only count individuals who actually set foot on the lunar surface.

    • Crew members who remain inside a landed vehicle and do not exit are not counted.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy