Resolves to the next person who steps foot on the moon. If there is a group that all step foot at the same time I will resolve to multiple. If there is a dispute I will resolve based on the spirit of the market, or maybe N/A if needed.
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Given how high this is: https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-china-land-people-on-the-moon
Other seemed undervalued at 0.7%, so I bought it up a bit.
According to NASA planning it would be Artemis 3 in 2025 but the crew is not announced yet. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3
@MaxPayne the team is known. So likely one of these 18 people: https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/12/09/nasa-names-18-astronauts-for-artemis-moon-missions/
@AlQuinn Maybe people figured that out because a) NASA has said that a woman and a person of colour will land on the moon, and b) Stephanie Wilson has significantly more experience than the other 17 astronauts on the Artemis programme
@JoshuaWilkes Joe Acaba looks to be as experienced, but I didn't realize NASA just came out and said the quiet part loud this time :)