Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the country that successfully conducts the next manned lunar landing. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective space agencies or credible news sources confirming the successful landing of astronauts on the Moon's surface.

Background

Several nations have announced plans for crewed lunar missions in the coming years:

• United States: NASA's Artemis program aims to return astronauts to the Moon. Artemis III, the mission intended to land astronauts on the lunar surface, is currently scheduled for September 2026. However, this timeline is subject to change due to technical and budgetary considerations. (freethink.com)

• China: The China National Space Administration (CNSA) has set a goal to land astronauts on the Moon by 2030. Recent missions, such as Chang'e-6, have demonstrated China's growing capabilities in lunar exploration. (lemonde.fr)

• India: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has announced plans for a crewed lunar mission by 2040. While this timeline is further out compared to the U.S. and China, India's recent successes, like the Chandrayaan-3 mission, indicate a strong commitment to lunar exploration. (phys.org)

• Russia: Russia's lunar program has faced setbacks, including the failure of the Luna-25 mission in 2023. Future plans for crewed lunar missions remain uncertain, with no confirmed timelines. (science.nasa.gov)

• Other: This option encompasses any other country that successfully conducts a manned lunar landing before the aforementioned nations.

Considerations

• Delays and Uncertainties: Space missions are complex and often subject to delays due to technical challenges, budgetary constraints, and policy changes. Traders should monitor official announcements from space agencies for the most current information.

• International Collaborations: Some missions may involve international partnerships. For instance, NASA has announced plans to include international astronauts in future Artemis missions. The country leading the mission and providing the launch vehicle will be considered the primary entity for resolution purposes. (cnn.com)

• Private Sector Involvement: Private companies, such as SpaceX, are playing significant roles in lunar missions. However, for the purpose of this market, the country associated with the mission's primary space agency will be considered.

Traders should stay informed about developments in global space exploration programs to make well-informed predictions.