Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market resolve YES?
Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market resolve YES?
119
1.2kṀ150kresolved Jan 17
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Note that it can also resolve 50%, in which case this market resolves NO.
See also: Will Mira's GPT4 sudoku market resolve to 50%?YES
Since the original market should never resolve N/A, only YES/NO/50%, the trio should be fully arbitrageable.
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bought Ṁ1 YES at 13% 1y
predictedYES
@Seeker The number of chat responses from GPT-4 needed to solve the puzzle (or to make a mistake).
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People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.