Will Mira's GPT4 sudoku market resolve to 50%?

GPT-4 Sudoku Challenge (2023)•Mira•New Year's Resolutions 2024

1.5K

Ṁ170K

Ṁ1.1K

resolved Jan 23

Resolved

YES

ALL

Will this market resolve to 50%?

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ1,784
2		Ṁ1,042
3		Ṁ657
4		Ṁ384
5		Ṁ320

5 Comments

66 Holders

639 Trades

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bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@JonathanRay, this can resolve to YES

predicted YES

@JonathanRay please resolve this to YES

Assuming the main market will not resolve NO, then this should be at 2*(100-x)% where x is the main market probability, or 76% currently.

But these markets currently estimate NO at 7%, so the main market probability is still properly arbed.

Please arbitrage so I don't have to do math.

predicted NO

@jskf My quick mental math says they’re more or less arbed

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