Tontine

Question

Closed to new entries. New entries submitted after 2024-01-01 resolve NO.

Your answer resolves NO when someone notices that you stop using Manifold for 30 days and posts a comment to that effect. Using Manifold means making a bet or trade.

The market resolves in the following cases:

There is only one person left.

Everyone left agrees to end the tontine and divide the pool.

I am unable to continue running the market or hand it over to someone else.

Whenever the market resolves, it resolves equally to all remaining people.

I will not bet in this market.

Update 2026-08-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve NO, the comment pointing out a 30-day inactivity gap must be posted before the participant resumes activity on Manifold.

If a participant resumes activity before a comment is made, they squeak by and cannot be eliminated retroactively for that gap.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, @jcb, followed by @brubsby (NO) and @tfae are most likely. See the market for live updates (40 traders, as of Sep 1, 2026).