Will someone commit murder to profit on Manifold by 2030?

Question

Resolves YES if someone is murdered in the 2020's and it is discovered that the murderer's motive was making a profit in a Manifold market. This doesn't have to be the only motive, as long as it was a contributing factor.

It must be confirmed or suspected before the closure date that this was the motivation for the murder, otherwise I will resolve it NO upon close (this is also why the closure date is after the last day that the murder could happen).

To prevent perverse incentives, it doesn't count if the murder was committed to profit off of this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (9 traders, as of May 11, 2026).