Will Eliezer Yudkowsky make any public statement in 2023 that his current p(doom) is not at its historical maximum?
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resolved Feb 27
Resolved
YES

In other words, will Eliezer say that he is more optimistic than he used to be, even by some tiny amount?

Will obviously have to resolve somewhat at my discretion. Any kind of verifiable, public statement will do, including Tweets, LessWrong comments etc. Things he allegedly said to people in private will not count.

Feb 27, 6:27pm: Will Eliezer Yudkowsky make any public statement in 2023 that his current p(doom) is not at its historical minimum? → Will Eliezer Yudkowsky make any public statement in 2023 that his current p(doom) is not at its historical maximum?

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My current p(doom) is not at its historical maximum; eg it moved slightly downward over the course of Bing based on public updates, how early particular alignment failures were able to be manifested, the existence of a tiny community of redteam prompt engineers who gain status and in some cases gainful employment by breaking alignment attempts instead of being publicly optimistic about them, etcetera.

@EliezerYudkowsky Thanks for the quick and easy resolution, in retrospect perhaps I should’ve tried to confirm your p(doom) was at its historic peak before creating the market

not being at a minimum for p(doom) would mean that he is less optimistic, not more, right?

@DanStoyell you're totally right - thanks for pointing out my mistake :)

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