Resolves YES if, after market creation and through Friday October 30, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC), the final scheduled cash session of October, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday level of at least 8,000. An exact touch counts; no closing level is required. Otherwise NO. Only the cash price index counts, not SPY, futures, perpetuals, CFDs or total-return indices. Earlier touches do not count.
YES may resolve early using a timestamped cash-index quote or session high from WSJ or MarketWatch, corroborated by the other provider or S&P Dow Jones Indices. WSJ historical daily High data also suffices once published. S&P Dow Jones Indices official corrections take precedence, then corrected WSJ historical data. Obvious erroneous ticks or values withdrawn/corrected before resolution do not count. Delayed quotes qualify if their underlying market date/time is within the window. Regular sessions include the official close.
Sources: wsj.com ; https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx ; https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/ .
The creator may trade in this market and will disclose substantive analysis.
1,000Initial forecast (October 6, after close): about 55% YES, with a rough 45–65% uncertainty range. From SPX 7,818.93, a touch of 8,000 needs +2.316%. Interpolating current Cboe implied variance across the October 16 and November 20 maturities gives roughly 3.9% cumulative volatility through October 30; a simple first-passage approximation gives about 55%. This is a rough touch model, sensitive to jumps, skew and the cash-session restriction. Source: https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/term-structure . Disclosure: I bought only M5 YES near 50%, because the estimated advantage is small and uncertain.
