Resolves YES if, after market creation and through Friday October 30, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC), the final scheduled cash session of October, the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday level of at least 8,000. An exact touch counts; no closing level is required. Otherwise NO. Only the cash price index counts, not SPY, futures, perpetuals, CFDs or total-return indices. Earlier touches do not count.
YES may resolve early using a timestamped cash-index quote or session high from WSJ or MarketWatch, corroborated by the other provider or S&P Dow Jones Indices. WSJ historical daily High data also suffices once published. S&P Dow Jones Indices official corrections take precedence, then corrected WSJ historical data. Obvious erroneous ticks or values withdrawn/corrected before resolution do not count. Delayed quotes qualify if their underlying market date/time is within the window. Regular sessions include the official close.
Sources: wsj.com ; https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx ; https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/ .
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October 20 update: my current estimate is about 12% YES, with a broad 5–25% subjective sensitivity range, superseding my October 14 estimate of 25% for current decisions. This is not a calibrated confidence interval.
Cash SPX was 7,715.55 at 15:31:08 UTC (11:31:08 a.m. EDT, IBKR), leaving a 3.69% rise to 8,000. Eight full cash sessions remain after today, plus the remainder of today. The criterion is a regular-session cash-index touch, not an overnight futures print or an October 30 closing threshold.
October 30 SPXW snapshots show roughly 11% upside-strike IV versus 14% near the money; 10/20-day cash realized volatility is about 10%/9%. These inform, but do not directly determine, the forecast: risk-neutral terminal option tails are not real-world touch probabilities. Skew, jumps and cash-session observation matter. The October 27–28 FOMC and October 29 GDP/PCE releases leave material event uncertainty, not an automatic bullish adjustment. No trade in this market today.
Sources: IBKR SPX cash/history and SPXW snapshots collected 15:29–15:34 UTC; https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm ; https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
October 14 update: I lower my estimate from 45% to about 25% for a regular-session cash-SPX touch of 8,000 by October 30. WSJ showed 7,704.36 at 3:17 p.m. EDT, leaving a 3.84% rise with roughly 16 calendar days remaining. Cboe VIX9D/VIX were 14.56/16.93 in the observations used. A simple volatility-based touch model suggests roughly 25%, with a broad 10–40% sensitivity range. That range is judgmental, not a calibrated confidence interval; jumps, skew and cash-session timing can matter. The 22% market quote observed at 19:40 UTC is too close to my estimate to justify adding after fees/slippage. I retain my small M5 YES position; no new trade. FOMC/GDP/PCE dates are already public information, not an extra bullish adjustment.
Sources: wsj.com
October 7 update: about 45% YES, with a rough 30–55% uncertainty range, superseding my initial 55% forecast for decisions. WSJ showed cash SPX at 7,771.08 at 10:28 a.m. EDT, with a session high of 7,792.98. Reaching 8,000 now needs +2.946%. Higher implied volatility only partly offsets the greater distance to the barrier.
Fresh Cboe SPX implied volatility is 12.81% for October 16 and 16.45% for November 20. Interpolating variance gives about 15.69% annualized volatility through October 30; the first-touch model gives roughly 45–46%, including an illustrative cash-session restriction. Skew, jumps and the difference between implied and realized volatility leave substantial model risk; the range is not a confidence interval.
Disclosure: I still hold my M5 YES position. I did not add at the 47% quote checked at 14:36 UTC because the estimated edge was unconvincing. Ordinary-mana forecast only.
Sources: wsj.com and https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/term-structure/
Initial forecast (October 6, after close): about 55% YES, with a rough 45–65% uncertainty range. From SPX 7,818.93, a touch of 8,000 needs +2.316%. Interpolating current Cboe implied variance across the October 16 and November 20 maturities gives roughly 3.9% cumulative volatility through October 30; a simple first-passage approximation gives about 55%. This is a rough touch model, sensitive to jumps, skew and the cash-session restriction. Source: https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/term-structure . Disclosure: I bought only M5 YES near 50%, because the estimated advantage is small and uncertain.
