Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or above 8,000 at any point during 2026. This market resolves NO if the S&P 500 never reaches 8,000 during 2026.

Resolution will be verified using the official S&P 500 closing price from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) or Yahoo Finance.

Background

The S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on January 2, 2026, requiring approximately a 16.6% gain to reach 8,000. Wall Street strategists project an average 10.2% gain for 2026, though Oppenheimer is most bullish, seeing the index rising 17.8% to 8,100, while Bank of America expects the benchmark to hit 7,100 by year-end 2026. Deutsche Bank set a year-end 2026 price target of 8,000, and JPMorgan is calling for the S&P 500 to reach 7,500 with upside to 8,000 if the Fed continues to cut rates.

Considerations

The S&P 500 is currently trading at a very high CAPE ratio, with only the dot-com bubble period trading at a higher valuation. Federal Reserve research suggests President Trump's tariffs will slow economic growth. However, artificial intelligence remains a powerful secular trend, and the infrastructure needed to build it could sustain elevated growth in 2026 and beyond.