Will the S&P 500 pass 1,000,000 by EOY 2026?
Will the S&P 500 pass 1,000,000 by EOY 2026?
28
100Ṁ22k2026
2%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the S&P 500 Pass 100,000 by EOY 2026?
2% chance
Will the S&P 500 reach 10000 pts before 2030?
40% chance
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2025?
1% chance
Will The S&P 500 Close above 6,500 on December 31st, 2025?
31% chance
Will the S&P 500 index drop below 4000 before EOY 2028?
38% chance
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2026?
63% chance
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2029?
68% chance
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2027?
69% chance
Conditional on AGI, will the S&P500 close above 1 million by 2032?
14% chance
Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2030?
66% chance